[PLUG-TALK] Risk of earthquake based nuclear problems in USA

Michael Rasmussen michael at jamhome.us
Sat Mar 19 10:16:56 PDT 2011


On Fri, Mar 18, 2011 at 06:13:01PM -0700, Denis Heidtmann wrote:
>  You (or anybody) have access to the entire list?  It would be interesting
> to assume events are independent add compute the likelihood of at least one
> event in the U.S. per year.
 
Why assume the events are independent?  All reactors in a region/seismic zone 
would be affected at the same time.  It is not the case that you have three times
the likelihood of an earthquake because there are three reactors that would be
affected.  Unless Murphy really does rule probabilities. 

-- 
      Michael Rasmussen, Portland Oregon  
  Trading kilograms for kilometers since 2003
    Be appropriate && Follow your curiosity
          http://www.jamhome.us/
The Fortune Cookie Fortune today is:
My wife is less than enthused about getting up at 5AM to drive me to this weekend's brevet.
	~  Doug Chinnery, speaking for many a randonneur



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