[PLUG-TALK] Risk of earthquake based nuclear problems in USA

Denis Heidtmann denis.heidtmann at gmail.com
Sat Mar 19 18:10:44 PDT 2011


On Sat, Mar 19, 2011 at 5:36 PM, Russell Senior <seniorr at aracnet.com> wrote:

> >>>>> "Michael" == Michael Rasmussen <michael at jamhome.us> writes:
>
> Denis> You (or anybody) have access to the entire list?  It would be
> Denis> interesting to assume events are independent add compute the
> Denis> likelihood of at least one event in the U.S. per year.
>
> Michael> Why assume the events are independent?
>
> You can't assume events are independent.  Events capable of generating
> failures tend to be highly correlated.  ...
> Russell Senior


I agree, but it made the calculation easy to do.  With the data at hand, the
result of the assumption produces a worst-case value, I believe.  But the
whole thing is tainted because the reported data's applicability has been
brought into question.

http://www.dailytech.com/EDITORIAL+US+NRC+Confirms+MSNBCcom+Reporter+Mislead+Sensationalized+Story/article21170.htm

-Denis
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