[PLUG-TALK] Covid-19 mortality rates

Tomas Kuchta tomas.kuchta.lists at gmail.com
Thu Mar 12 23:49:07 UTC 2020


Thank you Keith for "Think of the children"!

When writing my last post, I was so tempted to make a stab at the
asymptomatic little .... Yes, finally someone hit the nail on the head and
we know who should be isolated.

-T


On Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 19:31 Keith Lofstrom <keithl at kl-ic.com> wrote:

> On Wed, Mar 11, 2020 at 02:13:13PM -0700, Rich Shepard wrote:
> > The apparent panic about the coronavirus, covid-19, made me curious about
> > its mortality rate. Turns out to be very low:
> > <
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/?ref=hvper.com
> >
>
> The *AVERAGE* mortality rate is "low".  The mortality rate
> is considerably higher for those of us above 60, or with
> pre-existing medical conditions.  That differential is
> the reason to take extra precautions, for any age group.
>
> Oversimplifying WAG: If the vulnerable groups are 20% of
> the population, and half of the "average" 3% mortality
> rate is in those groups, then the mortality rate for the
> vulnerable groups is 7.5%.  However you slice it, if
> everyone is exposed (somehow), that is almost 10 million
> deaths in the US alone.
>
> There are less than 1 million hospital beds in the US.
> There are about 600,000 oxygen concentrator equivalents.
> Almost all are in use for pre-existing conditions.  Who
> do we push out of the lifeboat?
>
> Healthy children acquire COVID-19 without any symptoms,
> then spread it to each other and the adults around them.
> If schools are closed, children won't spread the virus
> there, but still can spread it at the playground and other
> public areas.  If they aren't in school, and their parents
> must work, then older relatives may help out - and may get
> a fatal disease from the asymptomatic children.  How's
> THAT for giving a child lifelong guilt?
>
> COVID-19 is not as lethal as SARS-2002 or MERS, but it
> spreads much more rapidly.  It is an RNA virus, so it
> mutates rapidly.  If COVID-19 infects millions of people
> worldwide, even without symptoms in most, there may soon
> be hundreds of variants (three identified so far), some
> of which will be difficult to detect, and some will be
> more lethal.
>
> Very bad threats (like Ebola) kill too fast to spread
> fast; the most "successful" pathogens produce the most
> virus particles that can reach other people.  COVID-19
> is near the "sweet spot", and can evolve closer.
>
> So - no vaccine, no widespread testing, few beds, few
> staff, few machines, against a threat that can become
> more lethal.  This is not time to panic, but it is time
> to PREPARE, and time to minimize the opportunities to
> spread.  MAXIMIZE the growth of treatment resources so
> that the exponential nature of this problem will be
> slightly less overwhelming in the coming months.
>
> Given the status quo, and the nature of the threat, all
> of us can expect to be exposed to COVID-19 at some point.
> The increase of IDENTIFIED cases in the US has increased
> 35% PER DAY over the last WEEK (from 175 to 1440).
> I hope most of that is due to more complete testing than
> to natural increase.
>
> But even if the natural increase is actually a "mere"
> 10% per day, then the growth from 1440 to 480 thousand
> will take two months.  The growth from 480 thousand to
> 160 million will take two more months.  EVERYONE in ONE
> more week.  MORBID's law.
>
> 480 thousand (mostly asymptomatic) COVID-19 carriers
> we can probably prepare for, if we drop everything else
> and focus on that.  There's no way we can prepare for
> 160 million in four months.
>
> So - the best option is to SLOW DOWN THE GROWTH RATE.
> **DRASTICALLY**, so a large but not gigantic investment
> will have time to pay off in, say, six months.
>
> An overabundance of caution and vast expansion of research
> and preparedness might seem a huge waste of resources a
> decade from now.  Better that than NO "decade from now",
> for us sheltered retail-vorous urban dwellers.
>
> So - bring out the BIG HAMMER - but not Stalin.  Stimulate
> our flagging economy with MASSIVE resource allocation to
> medical capability.  I prefer a Medical-Industrial complex
> to a Military-Industrial complex.  Express your preferences
> to your pension fund manager, not just your congressperson.
>
> ------
>
> I GREATLY prefer and OPEN SOURCE Medical-Industrial complex.
> We can make complex software - let's learn to make complex
> molecules.  Make our own tests.  Make our own disabled-virus
> vaccines.  Perhaps gene-engineer an algae that expresses the
> COVID-19 capsid proteins on its cell wall, grow it in jars
> in our kitchens by the kilogram, and share it with friends.
>
> Outrace the patent-producing monopoly labs.  SHARE.
>
> We have already developed the communities and the worldwide
> sharing techniques to implement this.  Time to learn some
> molecular biology, and share that with each other, the way
> we share software and coding techniques.  Much of modern
> molecular biology is Linux/Unix Big Data computing.
>
> Suggested reading: "Cell Biology By the Numbers" by
> Ron Milo and Rob Phillips.  Download a free draft
> version here:
>
>
> https://www.dropbox.com/s/gvpleqtcv8scro4/cellBiologyByTheNumbersJuly2015.pdf?dl=1
>
> Also visit https://bionumbers.hms.harvard.edu/KeyNumbers.aspx
>
> ------
>
> But please, be cautious, learn good health habits, and stay
> healthy so you can learn and contribute.  We can CHOOSE to
> be smarter than a damned virus, but we *MUST* CHOOSE.
>
> Keith
>
> --
> Keith Lofstrom          keithl at keithl.com
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>
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