[PLUG-TALK] Covid-19 mortality rates

[Tomas Kuchta]

The lack of testing explains why are mortality rates so high in some places
compared to others with little or no testing constraints.

The places with most people tested are probably South Korea and Singapore.
They both have also excellent and public health care - so they can provide
better/more care to larger population. So, they are probably examples of
lowest and accurate mortality levels achievable.

OTOH you have extremes such as US where the mortality rate is crazy high
because of lack of testing. Given that the dead are probably reported
accurately here, you can use the dead people count as proxy for infection
rate about 10 days ago. 40 dead is about 12k infected 10 days ago; or about
30+k today.

Once you have big enough tested or dead sample - the margin of error goes
down.

Just back of the envelope ... math



On Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 10:11 Richard Powell <rpowell at lucidheart.com> wrote:

> On 3/11/2020 3:42 PM, tomas.kuchta.lists at gmail.com wrote:
> > As far as the WHO and stats say - the death rate about 2%-3% which is
> about 20x-
> > 40x of seasonal flue. That is pretty big deal.
>
> I am suspicious of the mortality numbers being published.  I mean, if we
> can't get people tested, how can you accurately determine a mortality
> rate?  If there are thousands of undetected infections, where people
> barely notice they have something wrong, AND they can't get tested, you
> have a huge group of people that are not being considered in the
> mortality rate calculations.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> PLUG-talk mailing list
> PLUG-talk at pdxlinux.org
> http://lists.pdxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-talk
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.pdxlinux.org/pipermail/plug-talk/attachments/20200313/47f5ec9e/attachment.html>