[PLUG-TALK] Here’s why TSMC and Intel keep building foundries in the Arizona desert

[TomasK]

On Sun, 2021-06-06 at 14:53 -0700, Keith Lofstrom wrote:
> On Sun, Jun 06, 2021 at 09:08:16AM -0700, Galen Seitz wrote:
> > Here's an interesting but brief article.  I was unaware that Intel
> > is doing water restoration projects.
> > 
> > <https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2021/06/why-do-chip-makers-keep-bu
> > ilding-foundries-in-the-arizona-desert/>
> 
> When you make micro-acres of microchips rather than mega-
> acres of paper, you can afford to pay a lot for process
> water, and a lot for virtue-signalling water projects. 
> The fabs recycle process water, but employees object to
> recycling metabolic process water.  Virtue signalling 
> (and water) attracts more thoughtful fab workers.
> 
> Besides business friendly, and cheap land ... Arizona's
> low seismic risk is VERY important for semiconductor fabs.
> 
> When Intel started building in Oregon, little was known
> about Cascadia Fault earthquakes.  While those happen very
> rarely, when they do they rank among the worst disasters
> on Earth.  The Lewis and Clark expedition survived because
> the 1700 Cascadia Earthquake wiped out potential hostiles.
> 
> A Richter 9 earthquake at Intel's D1X (sited on Tualatin
> Valley clay "jello", albeit with pilings down to bedrock)
> would overwhelm seismic isolation and hammer billions of
> dollars worth of process equipment into scrap.
> 
> When Tektronix (where I worked) built its chip fab in the
> early 1980s, they did seismic studies before the design. 
> 
> Sensitive seismometers could measure the vibration from
> heavy trucks rolling down Highway 26 1.5 miles north. 
> WAY too unstable.  So, they drove hundreds of pilings 100+
> feet down to rock, then shock-isolated the entire factory
> floor, with air-bearings and active suspension under the
> most sensitive equipment.  Intel's equipment needs 100x
> better vibration isolation than Tek's former fab;  Maxim is
> there now, but their chips are not as delicate as Intel's.
> 
> So yes, Intel can site the design centers in Oregon - chip
> engineers are attracted to Oregon's beauty, are mostly
> replaceable, and there are plenty more in India where they
> came from.  But keep the expensive toys in a safe place
> like Arizona.
> 

I think that you maybe over-estimating the quake risks by wide margin.
High end semiconductor manufacturing equipment fully amortizes in about
5 years and the buildings themselves are maybe good for 3-4 technology
nodes (10-ish years) before major retrofit/expansion or abandonment.
Unless, of course someone comes up with 2-3 orders of magnitude cheaper
way of making semiconductors.

So, at those time scales the probability of high end chip factory being
hit by truly devastating quake while it is still in its amortization
phase is fairly low. I would bet my hat that this has been analyzed and
it is priced in the business plan before go/no-go decision.

The times when people believed that a chip fab is being build for
forever are long time gone. You build these monsters, pay them off in
three years  - then make more profit for 2 more years, if possible.
Then expand/retrofit/rebuild and start over.

This is driven by increased cost of modern fabs with every technology
node - fabs must grow in size with the sticker price or perish an loose
ton of money.

I hope this makes sense, Tomas