[PLUG] SuitWatch - March 27 (fwd)

[Rich Shepard]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
                             SuitWatch--March 27th

  Views on Linux in Business

  --by Doc Searls, Senior Editor of Linux Journal
     _________________________________________________________________

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                          "Welcome to GandhiCon 4"

   Thursday, March 27, 2003--Perhaps we'll remember March 18, 2003, as
   E-Day. That was the day when Evans Data Corp. delivered hard numbers
   to substantiate what most of us already sensed in our bones: Linux was
   now clearly on its way to becoming the majority target platform for
   enterprise software development.

   First came the company's release:
   http://www.evansdata.com/n2/pr/releases/3_18_2003.shtml to the press.
   "DEVELOPERS MIGRATING FROM WINDOWS TO LINUX", its headline said,
   adding "52% of Developers Now Targeting Linux Used to Develop for
   Windows". Linux, the survey said:
   http://www.evansdata.com/n2/surveys/linux/linux_03_1_xmp1.shtml, is
   pulling developers away from Windows more than it pulls from various
   forms of UNIX:

     Fifty-two percent of respondents who currently have Linux as their
     target for applications say they used to write applications
     primarily for one of the versions of Windows. Only 30% have
     switched from some form of UNIX to Linux as their primary target.

   Computerwire:
   http://www.computerwire.info/brnews/73C4FE58AF70456D80256CEC0054E3D5
   put the news in perspective, dismissing conventional Microsoft FUD:

     A new survey from Evans Data Corp. appears to contradict
     suggestions from Microsoft Corp. that the growth of the Linux
     operating system has been at the expense of UNIX, rather than its
     own Windows operating system.

   In other words, okay, we'll see your FUD and raise you a few FACTS. I
   immediately wrote and asked Evans Data to share a few more of those
   facts with us, which they kindly provided. Here are some of the target
   platform results:

     Unsurprisingly, Windows OSes are the most common, accounting for
     81% of developers' primary host environments...Linux, too, has
     become a contender in the most-used development OS comparison; 8%
     of respondents use Linux as their primary development OS, which is
     more than all the other flavors of UNIX combined (5.4%).

     For secondary target host environments today, 32% of respondents
     named UNIX, and about half of those (15.5% of the total) named
     Linux.

   For next year's plans, Evans Data said, "Linux use will increase, too;
   8% use it now, but 14% expect to use the open-source OS as primary
   host next year. (That 6% increase is suspiciously similar to the 6%
   decrease in Windows use.)"

   Among development platforms, however, Linux already kicks butt. Here's
   Evans Data:

     Linux is the primary choice of host platform at 40%. Windows 2000
     makes a strong showing at 29%, with Windows XP right behind at 12%.
     The landscape is about to change, however, as you will see below...

     Next year respondents plan to increase their use of Linux as the
     primary development platform by 15%, from 40% to 55%. They also
     plan to increase their use of Windows XP as a development platform
     by 8%, going from 12% this year to 20% next year. Both Linux and
     Windows XP are taking at least some of their share from Windows
     2000, since it drops 15% from 30% this year to 15% for the next.
     Other flavors of UNIX comprise an insignificant share of the host
     development platform this and next year, so Linux is obviously
     taking more share from Windows than any other OS.

   It gets better when we look at development platforms:

     The choice of OS for a development platform does not necessarily
     dictate the choice of OS on which to run the finished application.
     In this case, however, Linux tops the chart on both the development
     platform choice and target platform choice. Forty-percent of
     respondents said they most often target Linux for the OS on which
     their applications will run compared to 43% for all versions of
     Windows combined. Windows 2000 is the primary target for 23% of
     respondents. This distribution implies the bulk of applications are
     likely to be server-oriented, especially since the most often used
     client OS, Windows 95/98, is the primary target for only 8% of
     developers. Windows XP is the primary focus for 8%, as well.

   And what about next year? Get ready to rock:

     When it comes to the primary focus for the target platform for
     applications, the trend for next year follows the same trend for
     what respondents are going to use for their development platform.
     Linux gets the largest increase, going from 40% to 53%. The
     combination of all Windows versions drops from 43% to 33%. Windows
     2000 loses the most attention, going from 23% to 13%. Windows XP
     picks up more focus, going from 8% this year to 17% next year. The
     rest of the categories continue to get an insignificant amount of
     attention.

   Yesterday at PC Forum in Arizona, I talked with Avery Lyford,
   President and CEO of Linuxcare, which is one of the companies working
   to satisfy the demand outlined above. Avery is also an IBM veteran who
   knows the enterprise space extremely well, especially where Linux is
   involved. "It's done," he said. "Linux is a lock. The only remaining
   resistance is around open-source development, and that's only because
   a lot of IT people still don't understand it. But that will change
   soon, too. Count on it."

   Right before I talked to Avery, an IT guy at a Fortune 50 company
   pulled me aside to talk about the rapid movement toward widespread
   Linux deployment at his firm. All he needed to finish making it
   happen, he said, was a few hard numbers. "Do you know any?" he said. I
   told him to watch his e-mail. This morning I sent him the numbers I
   just shared with the rest of you.

   A few weeks back I asked Eric Raymond if he thought we had reached the
   final stage outlined by Mohandas Gandhi's famous quote: "First they
   ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you
   win."

   He replied, "Still GandhiCon 3:
   http://opensource.org/halloween/halloween8.php (they fight you), I
   think, though late in that stage."

   I believe these Evans Data results may have brought us to the verge of
   GhandiCon 4.

   --
   Doc Searls:
   mailto:doc at ssc.com is Senior Editor of Linux Journal.