[PLUG] random question: how do you think newbies select their distributions?

[chris (fool) mccraw]

my 3/4-baked theory is that many people new to linux use what their
friends suggest, or what they first or most compellingly hear about.
that is, they don't do comparative research between available/relevant
distributions and choose logically.

certainly that was the case for me in the early days and even now i'm
more a "try it and see" type than a heavy researcher when i experiment with
distros i haven't used before.  hmm, then again, i know more of what i
want and need from a distro now, and can judge some things instantly
that i would have not understood when i was getting started, so maybe
the past 16 years has been of some use after all =)

anyway, what is your take on how people choose distributions, and/or
how did you choose your first?  i think newbies are an especially
interesting discussion because we are attracting so many to our ranks
these days and i'm curious as to what trends will shape the future of
the landscape;  i believe that the distros that see the most users
fare the best in terms of vitality and usually pace/success of
development, commercial or non (though that is a belief open to
debate in itself).

personally, i started with slackware because i was unaware anything
else existed and my mentor used slackware, though i understood that
slackware was not linux.  the second time (in as many weeks) that i
installed it i downloaded it myself from somewhere that had other
distros mirrored too and i noticed their presence but was not
inquisitive for many months (and many reinstalls).  it maybe that
nothing else was as mature and generally awesome and in english at the
time (mid-1994), but i certainly can't vouch for that with any
certainty.

thoughts?