[PLUG-TALK] Covid-19 mortality rates

[tomas.kuchta.lists at gmail.com]

As far as the WHO and stats say - the death rate about 2%-3% which is about 20x-
40x of seasonal flue. That is pretty big deal.

Let's be optimistic:
Just imagine only 40% of the population gets it 0.4*330M=132M only 2% die is 2.6
Million of additional dead people - 60% of which will be over 65 years of age.

I'm not sure what words are appropriate to the danger - This is extremely
serious.

On the side note:
Italy's outbreak is week old now, with almost 1k dead and another 1k in ICU
isolation. How many free and isolated ICU beds with life support do we think are
available at any given time?

Right now, the testing here is still limited by test availability supply - so
expect to see new cases acceleration as people can get tested without
restrictions. With this spread visibility restrictions the number of new cases
doubles almost every 1-2 days => here will be about to 20k new cases by the end
of the weekend - that translates to 400 future deaths just for this week.

Tomas

On Wed, 2020-03-11 at 15:12 -0700, Rich Shepard wrote:
> On Wed, 11 Mar 2020, Paul Heinlein wrote:
> 
> > In short, the COVID-19 story -- which plays to the "if it bleeds, it
> > leads" mentality of some in the press and would have gotten some press
> > regardless -- has now been caught up in this administration's political
> > battles, ensuring it even more press.
> 
> All too true, Paul. Unfortunately it has caused what appears to be mass
> panic in the population. And it's not only here: Italy shut down the entire
> country.
> 
> Does no one believe in science any more?
> 
> Rich
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