[PLUG-TALK] Covid-19 mortality rates

[Denis Heidtmann]

Sent to me by friend at PSU:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

I found it the most detailed and complete discussion of the pandemic I have
seen so far.

-Denis

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 2:30 PM Tomas Kuchta <tomas.kuchta.lists at gmail.com>
wrote:

> The lack of testing explains why are mortality rates so high in some
> places compared to others with little or no testing constraints.
>
> The places with most people tested are probably South Korea and Singapore.
> They both have also excellent and public health care - so they can provide
> better/more care to larger population. So, they are probably examples of
> lowest and accurate mortality levels achievable.
>
> OTOH you have extremes such as US where the mortality rate is crazy high
> because of lack of testing. Given that the dead are probably reported
> accurately here, you can use the dead people count as proxy for infection
> rate about 10 days ago. 40 dead is about 12k infected 10 days ago; or about
> 30+k today.
>
> Once you have big enough tested or dead sample - the margin of error goes
> down.
>
> Just back of the envelope ... math
>
>
>
> On Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 10:11 Richard Powell <rpowell at lucidheart.com> wrote:
>
>> On 3/11/2020 3:42 PM, tomas.kuchta.lists at gmail.com wrote:
>> > As far as the WHO and stats say - the death rate about 2%-3% which is
>> about 20x-
>> > 40x of seasonal flue. That is pretty big deal.
>>
>> I am suspicious of the mortality numbers being published.  I mean, if we
>> can't get people tested, how can you accurately determine a mortality
>> rate?  If there are thousands of undetected infections, where people
>> barely notice they have something wrong, AND they can't get tested, you
>> have a huge group of people that are not being considered in the
>> mortality rate calculations.
>>
>>
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