[PLUG-TALK] SpaceX epic fail

[Ash Powell]

I've been following SpaceX and Starship pretty religiously for the past 
decade.  So, while not a rocket scientist, I have a few insights / 
opinions.  Mostly based on the information from bloggers like Tim Dodd, 
Scott Manley, Felix (What About It), Marcus House.

On 4/22/2023 1:43 AM, Keith Lofstrom wrote:
> There is a MAJOR system design flaw in "stage zero" of the
> SpaceX Starship vehicle.

Elon Musk himself admitted not having the flame diverter was potentially 
a mistake.  He said so quite some time ago (2 years ago).  Which is why 
there's a ton of hardware sitting near stage zero in preparation for a 
water deluge system.  At least one step in addressing the issue.  The 
team knew of the problem beforehand, but decided they'd go ahead with 
the first launch anyway.  I suspect that it won't take years to address 
it, as they've already been on top of it for months now.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/12tapz0/elon_musks_tweet_from_2_years_ago_aspiring_to/

> I dope-slapped myself when I saw this - OF COURSE this
> launch system has a fatal flaw, why didn't I see that?

People have been talking about it for years.  I only know about it from 
the above mentioned bloggers that have talked about it for a long time 
now.  But it's not exactly publicly discussed much beyond those bloggers.

> Then look at 4:59 ... there are 6 engines out. The
> vehicle lifted with 3 engines out. Video blogger Scott
> Manley thinks the engines were destroyed by chunks of
> flying concrete,

I was so thankful for Scott Manley's video blog about this topic.  He 
seems to be spot on.  He was the first of the bloggers to describe the 
likely cause of failure.

> This may take years to fix.  Manley suggests that
> something similar will happen if/when the upper stage
> Starship lands on the Moon or Mars

For clarification.  The Starship version that will land and take off 
from the moon doesn't use the same configuration.  The engines are more 
than half way up the ship specifically to void churning up too much 
debris.  I believe in terms of moon missions, they're already well on 
top of it.  I don't believe there will be such a huge delay/setback as 
you might think for the moon.

Mars however, yes.  I was thinking that for sure, there won't be return 
missions from Mars until they get this problem solved somehow.  Those 
engines are on/near the ground.  Though, keep in mind, the landing and 
takeoff Starship will only have 6 engines. Not 33 engines as exist on 
the Earth based booster.  Again, while I'm sure that it's a definite 
concern, the problem may not be as dire as it seems.  6 engines vs 33 
engines.  Doesn't require as much thrust to lift off from Mars.


> P.S.:  I wangled press passes for the first STS-1 space
> shuttle launch in April 1981.  I visited Pad 39 on a
> press tour the night before the first launch attempt.
> I got a close-up look at those enormous flame ducts.


That is soo cool!  I wanted to be in Texas for Starship launch so bad.  
But alas.  Life happens.

Ash